Analysis of Abu Bakr al-Baghdādī’s November 2, 2016 Audio Recording

A new thirty-one minute-and-a-half audio recording of Abu Bakr al-Baghdādī, the self-declared Caliph of the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Shām (ISIS), was released on November 2, 2016. This is the first time that al-Baghdādī has issued an audio or video recording since May 2015, when ISIS released an audio recording of al-Baghdādī after the ISIS offensive on the city of Ramādī, Iraq. Before that, the last recording that the world witnessed of al-Baghdādī was the one that made him known to the whole world — his video-recorded sermon at the Grand Mosque of al-Nūrī in Mosul, Iraq, in early July of 2014, when he declared himself Caliph. The recent November 2 audio recording was released by Muʿassāsat al-Furqān, the media arm of ISIS. The title of the recording is as follows:

“This is What God and his Messenger Have Promised us” (hathā ma waʿdana allahu wa rasūlu)

The title of the audio recording is inspired by Q 33:22, the Qur’ānic verse with which al-Baghdādī begins his speech:

When the Believers saw the Confederate forces (al-ahzāb), they said: “This is what Allah and his Messenger had promised us (hathā ma waʿdana allahu wa rasūlu), and Allah and His Messenger told us what was true.” And it only added to their faith and their zeal in obedience.

Although nothing in the Qur’ān demands this reading, many Qur’ānic exegetes have explained this verse as being revealed during the Battle of the Trench (Ghazwat al-Khandaq) in 627 A.D. The ahzāb (groups or confederate forces) are interpreted as being a reference to the Quraysh-led Bedouin clans that gathered against Muḥammad in Medina.¹ This allusion is apt here because it is said, according to early Islamic writings, that Muḥammad and his allies were greatly outnumbered during the siege of Medina during this battle, but they nonetheless, with the help of God and his angels, managed to repel the Meccans.

As one would expect given the siege of Iraqi armies and militias around the last Iraqi stronghold of ISIS in Mosul, the main theme of the speech is that the mujāhidīn (jihādī fighters) should remain steadfast and have faith in the promise (waʿd) of God. This is something that al-Baghdādī repeats over and over throughout this exhortative address.

I believe that two general observations about the sermon should be underscored:

1. The whole of his sermon is conducted in very eloquent Classical Arabic, which is very appealing to Arabs and Muslims. The Arabic displayed by al-Baghdādī here, as was displayed in his May 2015 audio recording and in his extemporaneous speech at the Grand Mosque of al-Nūrī in early July of 2014, is at a level higher than what the vast majority of native Arabic speakers are capable of.²
2. The sermon, from beginning to end, is imbued with religious allusions and citations from Islamic source texts. There is no question that al-Baghdādī knows the Islamic source texts better than most Muslims.

In the following, I will give a summative run-down and interspersed commentary of what al-Baghdādī said in his thirty-one minute-and-a-half speech. In general, my summary will correspond chronologically to the sermon.³

Summary of the Speech

Al-Baghdādī begins the substance of his very eloquent Arabic sermon by stating that the infidels have all gathered together (like the Aḥzāb mentioned above) to fight Islam and its people. He states that they are afraid of the resurgence of Sunni Islam and that the caliphate of old will be resurrected. He goes on to say that the battles that ISIS is waging today are but a harbinger of victory.

Naturally, as an experienced Mosque preacher and the leader of ISIS, al-Baghdādī tries to give hope to the followers of the Islamic State by appealing to Qur’ānic verses.⁴ For example, he cites verses about the Pharaoh and Moses, implying that just as God intervened to save Moses and his people from the larger armies of Pharaoh (by parting the sea), so too will God intervene to save the people of Islam, represented by ISIS, from the prima facie stronger Pharaohs of this age.

Al-Baghdādī affirms that the perfection of the Muslim community will not take place unless Muslims wage jihād against the unrighteous (ahlu al-Bāṭil). For him, the ahlu al-Bāṭil function as a foil to the righteous Muslims. Without this jihād against the aggression of the unrighteous infidels, faith would have weakened (5:00).

He names “the enemies of God” who have marshaled their resources against the Islamic State in the Ninevah province (i.e., Mosul and surroundings).⁵ Naturally, they are “the Jews, Christians (called Crusaders or ṣalībiyīn), atheists, Shi’ī rāfiḍha,⁶ apostates, and all the nations of kufr (infidelity).”

Al-Baghdādī appeals specifically to the (Sunnī) people of Ninevah province. He exhorts them lest they become lax in jihād and fighting against the enemies. Alluding to early Islamic history, he speaks of the local Iraqi ISIS fighters as the anṣār (supporters), and the foreign fighters as the muhājirūn (emigrants, 7:40).⁷

He next addresses the junūd al-khilāfa (soldiers of the caliphate), encouraging them to withstand the bombings of American airplanes (8:40). Al-Baghdādī reassures his fighters that even if the heavens closed down upon the Muslims, God would make an escape route for them. In highly rhetorical statements, he asks the soldiers of the caliphate to turn the infidels’ days into nights, to destroy their abodes, and to make their blood flow like rivers (9:00).

He then addresses the Sunni Muslims of Iraq, wondering if they have not yet wised up to their humiliation. He says that al-Rawāfiḍh (i.e., the Shi’īs)⁸ have been attacking Sunnis and committing massacres on the pretext that they are fighting against the Islamic State. He implores Sunnis to look at the banners that Iraqis fighting ISIS are hoisting, and to listen to their Shi’ī battle cries. He goes on to state that the Shi’īs will not rest until they kill the Sunni men, take their women as sabāya (female captives), and expel them from Iraq (11:00).

In saying this, Abu Bakr al-Baghdādī is trying to cunningly take advantage of Shi’ī excesses in Iraq to garner Sunni support, without which ISIS would never have emerged as a regional power. Yet his own caliphate is a paragon of sectarianism; indeed, his frequent use of the pejorative “Rawafiḍh” underscores this hypocrisy.

Although there is some exaggeration in what al-Baghdādī says, he is correct that many Iraqis fighting ISIS are sectarian Shi’īs. Pictures have emerged of soldiers in the Iraqi army waving flags emblazoned with “Oh Husayn” and chanting Shi’ī cries. Husayn, son of ʿAlī ibn Abī Ṭālib and grandson of Muḥammad, is one of the most exalted figures in Shi’īsm.⁹

Critique of Regional Enemies

Al-Baghdādī goes on to state that the Shi’īs are threatening to invade all the lands of the Sunnis — from Iraq, to al-Shām (the Levant), to Nejd (central Saudi Arabia), and to Yemen. He also condemns the Sunni rulers of the region for betraying “the cause” and surrendering Sunni lands to enemies. He laments that the lands of the Sunnis have been divided by “the atheists, pagan Shi’īs, and Nusayris.”

He next refers to the siege of Aleppo by the Nusayriyah and the Russian Majūs.¹⁰ He claims the Russians want to create an alternative Nusayri state, while treacherous jihādī factions (like Jahbat al-Nusra) have turned their weapons against ISIS.

A fan of historical and Islamic allusions, al-Baghdādī claims the nefarious plans of the Byzantines (rūm) continue even in the Arabian Peninsula, which he calls “the Peninsula of Muḥammad.” By “Byzantines,” he means America and Western powers. He believes they are placing Shi’ī rāfiḍha in power near Arabia and corrupting the Saudi rulers.

In a rhetorical flourish, al-Baghdādī mocks the Saudi royal family by calling them Āl Salūl (“the house of Salūl”) instead of Āl Saʿūd, referencing ʿAbdallah bin Abī bin Salūl, an enemy of Muḥammad (12:40).

He accuses Saudi Arabia of allying with infidels and joining the war in Iraq and Syria. He asserts that the Saudis are the source of every problem in the region—a statement ironic in light of leaked evidence showing that Saudi Arabia and Qatar helped fund ISIS early on.

Al-Baghdādī then exhorts the men of al-Jazīra (the Arabian Peninsula) to rise up against their rulers and clerics (13:24), quoting a ḥadīth implying that the House of Saʿūd follow a different religion than Islam.¹¹

Next, he condemns Turkey, warning Muslims of its “secularist” regime and its cooperation with “Crusader” forces. He calls upon the mujāhidīn to attack Turkish forces, whose “blood is as vile as that of dogs” (15:00).

He alludes to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and mocks his regime’s ties to the Muslim Brotherhood (al-Ikhwān al-Muslimīn), calling them ikhwān al-shayātīn (“Brothers of the Devils”) and ikhwān al-murtadūn (“Brothers of the Apostates”) (15:40).¹²¹³¹⁴

Religious and Moral Exhortations

Al-Baghdādī laments the corruption of the Arab world and quotes Qur’ān 9:30 — “May God damn them, how deluded they are!” — the verse following the infamous “sword verse” (Q 9:29).

He returns to exhorting his jihādī warriors, calling them the armor of Islam, and reminds them that God will forgive the obedient (17:50). He quotes from a letter attributed to ʿUmar ibn al-Khaṭṭāb to Saʿd Ibn Abī Waqqās, urging steadfastness against stronger foes (9:50).

He warns against retreat:

“Do not stoop yourself. Know that the fruits of remaining steadfast in the land are much better than the humiliating fruits of withdrawing.”

He cites Q 33:16 (21:00):

“Flight will not avail you if ye flee from death or killing, and then ye dwell in comfort but a little while.”

He then quotes a ḥadīth from Ṣaḥīḥ Muslim:

“Keeping watch for a day and a night is better than fasting for a whole month and standing in prayer every night… and he will be saved from the torture of the grave.” — Sahih Muslim 33:233

Al-Baghdādī reminds his fighters that they are fighting for Allah’s cause, and that martyrdom brings paradise. He then warns the mujāhidīn against internal conflict and disobedience (23:40), signaling unrest within ISIS ranks.

Global Call to Arms

Al-Baghdādī extends his message to ISIS supporters worldwide:

“To the soldiers of the caliphate in Khorosan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Qawqāzī,¹⁵ the Philippines, Yemen, the Arabian Peninsula, the Sinai, Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Somalia, and Western Africa — know that today you are the supporters of Islam in this land.”

He exhorts them to remain steadfast and not flee from fighting, again alluding to Q 33:16. He quotes the ḥadīth, “Paradise is under the shadow of the swords,” and reassures them that if one leader dies, God will replace him (26:00).

He praises the mujāhidūn in Sert, Libya, urging them to continue their fight. If emigration to Iraq closes, he says, God will open new paths to other “blessed states.”

Finally, al-Baghdādī mourns fallen ISIS leaders, including Muḥammad al-Furqān and Muḥammad al-Adnānī, and ends his speech by imploring God to destroy the enemies of the Caliphate and make the ahzāb (confederate forces) flee.

In sum, his speech is a religiously imbued exhortation for his followers to remain steadfast. There are many veiled and not-so-veiled references to Islamic history and literature, requiring a deep familiarity with Islam and Arabic to fully grasp. The weeks ahead would reveal whether the speech would have any measurable impact on his followers.